Both results were in line with those of other polls, which generally found overall Black support for Trump to be around 10 percent. A survey taken by the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape in late September and early October found that 21 percent of Black voters ages 18 to 44 supported Trump, while an October New York Times/Siena College national poll found that 11 percent of Black men backed Trump. Jessica McGowan/Getty ImagesĪhead of the election, polls showed Trump making inroads with Black voters, particularly younger voters and men. Black Biden supporters cheer during a November 2020 drive-in rally in Atlanta. The election is still very close, and his gains with Black voters may not be enough to win Trump the presidency, but it is certainly enough to make Democrats wonder about their strategy with Black voters - particularly Black men. In the AP’s case, 12 percent of Black men voters backed Trump, compared to 6 percent of Black women in Edison’s case, 18 percent of Black men voters cast ballots for Trump, while 8 percent of Black women did the same. Both found Black men were more likely than Black women to support Trump.Edison Research determined that 87 percent of Black voters voted for Biden and 12 percent for Trump.The AP found that 90 percent of Black voters went to Biden and 8 percent to Trump.Black voters made up about 11 or 12 percent of the electorate, according to the AP and Edison, respectively.AP and Edison pollsters are still adjusting the weighting on their data to ensure it’s as accurate as possible, but here’s what we know right now: Confirming whom poll respondents actually voted for takes time - for instance, a Pew Research Center study on the 2016 election’s demographic breakdowns of verified voters was published not months after that contest, but in August 2018.

If you compare the CCES numbers to the results of 2020 exit polls by Edison Research, Trump actually improved by 4 percentage points.Ī clearer picture will emerge in the years to come. One of the surprises in the election is that President Donald Trump actually improved his standing with Black voters over four years ago.Īccording to AP VoteCast, Trump won 8 percent of the Black vote, about a 2 percentage-point gain on his 2016 numbers (using the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, or CCES, a national survey of more than 50,000 confirmed voters, as a point of comparison).Īnd he may have done even better than 2 percentage points.

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